Authors
Marco Del Negro, Frank Schorfheide
Publication date
2013/1/1
Book
Handbook of economic forecasting
Volume
2
Pages
57-140
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models use modern macroeconomic theory to explain and predict comovements of aggregate time series over the business cycle and to perform policy analysis. We explain how to use DSGE models for all three purposes – forecasting, story-telling, and policy experiments – and review their forecasting record. We also provide our own real-time assessment of the forecasting performance of the Smets and Wouters (2007) model data up to 2011, compare it with Blue Chip and Greenbook forecasts, and show how it changes as we augment the standard set of observables with external information from surveys (nowcasts, interest rates, and long-run inflation and output growth expectations). We explore methods of generating forecasts in the presence of a zero-lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates and conditional on counterfactual interest rate paths. Finally …
Total citations
20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320246213940373532312840263819
Scholar articles
M Del Negro, F Schorfheide - Handbook of economic forecasting, 2013