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This study used a linear structural relations modeling technique (LISREL) to examine longitudinal data for 1,192 persons from a community-based population. The goal was to test the ability of an a priori model to predict cognitive change over a 2.0-to 2.5-year period in older adults aged 70–79 at the initial evaluation. The model included 22 demographic, physical, and psychosocial variables as predictors of cognitive function and cognitive change. The study used an exploratory–confirmatory design, enabling cross-validation of the model developed in the exploratory set in the confirmatory sample. Structural equation modeling analyses identified 4 endogenous model variables (education, strenuous activity, peak pulmonary expiratory flow rate, and self-efficacy) as direct predictors of cognitive change over the study period.