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There is mounting fear that the COVID-19 pandemic repeats the scenario of a food security crisis similar to that experienced in 2007-2008. One particular area of concern is that protectionist trade policies magnify the negative economic effects of the pandemic and of the confinement measures implemented to suppress the novel coronavirus. At the time of writing, these concerns seem overstated. However, this does not mean that the trade effects of the sanitary crisis may not be disruptive for the agriculture sector in Latin America and the Caribbean. Policymakers should remain vigilant that trade policies are part of the solution and not of the problem.

LAC countries and sectors face a wide range of risks related to the impact of the pandemic on agriculture and food global markets. Net importers are exposed to risks on the supply side. Export restrictions implemented by key commercial partners and disruptions in production and logistics chains may affect them directly in the short run, and a spiral of rising food prices would distress them indirectly. At the opposite end of the spectrum, net exporters are exposed to risks on the demand side. Rising costs and obstacles along the trade routes will negatively affect them in the short run. However, in the medium run the impact will depend on the dynamics of global demand and export prices, in the context of the looming global recession.