Authors
Mohammed Mahmoud, Yuqiong Liu, Holly Hartmann, Steven Stewart, Thorsten Wagener, Darius Semmens, Robert Stewart, Hoshin Gupta, Damian Dominguez, Francina Dominguez, David Hulse, Rebecca Letcher, Brenda Rashleigh, Court Smith, Roger Street, Jenifer Ticehurst, Mark Twery, Hedwig van Delden, Ruth Waldick, Denis White, Larry Winter
Publication date
2009/7/1
Source
Environmental Modelling & Software
Volume
24
Issue
7
Pages
798-808
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
M Mahmoud, Y Liu, H Hartmann, S Stewart, T Wagener… - Environmental Modelling & Software, 2009