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We tested forecasts made by Mac Nally and Bennett (Mac Nally, R., Bennett, A.F., 1997. Species-specific predictions of the impact of habitat fragmentation: local extinction of birds in the box-ironbark forests of central Victoria, Australia. Biological Conservation 82, 147–155) of relative vulnerability to habitat fragmentation for 43 species of birds in the box–ironbark system of central Victoria, Australia. The predictions were based on a simple, tripartite model linking habitat specialization, density and mobility, three of the characteristics most widely mooted in the literature to influence vulnerability to habitat fragmentation. For each species, a predicted index of ‘proneness’ to local extinction was calculated by using prior, independent data. The model system consisted of existing fragments of 10, 20, 40 and 80 ha size-classes, with between 5 and 15 ‘replicates’ of each size-class. Replicated ‘reference-areas’ — mapped-out …