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This study investigates stochastic saturation flow rate in Japan starting from shared permissive left-turn lane. The methods used in Highway Capacity Manual 2000 and Japan Society of Traffic Engineering (JSTE) guideline were analyzed and evaluated. The comparison results show that both HCM and JSTE tend to overestimate the performed saturation flow rate in shared left-turn lane. As for detailed analysis, lane blockage probability is interpreted by using a binary logistic regression model. Then an empirical model is proposed to test the effect of lane blockage and significant influencing factors on saturation flow rate estimation in shared left-turn lane. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.