Authors
Jenna Nobles, Fernando Riosmena, Esteban J Quiñones, Raphael Nawrotzki
Publication date
2017/9
Description
Short Abstract: Many migration models are predicated on anticipatory (ex ante) behavior. Despite theoretical attention to anticipatory behavior in response to environmental change, empirical migration research has focused on reactive (ex post) migration associated with climatic events. In contrast, we study whether anticipatory migration behavior is responsive to climateassociated shocks to neighbors’ agricultural yields. We address this unresolved question with a novel strategy that (1) minimizes selection by focusing on community level agricultural outcomes as a function of environmental conditions and (2) is driven by agricultural households’ beliefs about future climate-associated agricultural loss. If anticipatory migration is an important adaptation mechanism, projections of future environmental migration may be substantially understated in contexts characterized by slow moving environmental change. Evidence of anticipatory migration may additionally highlight the importance of adaptation to environmental change through ‘learning from others’ and help explained so-called ‘adaptation-gaps’ to climate change.
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