Authors
Jan H Kwakkel, Warren E Walker, Marjolijn Haasnoot
Publication date
2016/3/1
Source
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume
142
Issue
3
Pages
01816001
Publisher
American Society of Civil Engineers
Description
In many planning problems, planners face major challenges in coping with uncertain and changing physical conditions, and rapid unpredictable socioeconomic development. How should society prepare itself for this confluence of uncertainty? Given the presence of irreducible uncertainties, there is no straightforward answer to this question. Effective decisions must be made under unavoidable uncertainty (Dessai et al. 2009; Lempert et al. 2003). In recent years, this has been labeled as decision making under deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty means that the various parties to a decision do not know or cannot agree on the system and its boundaries; the outcomes of interest and their relative importance; the prior probability distribution for uncertain inputs to the system (Lempert et al. 2003; Walker et al. 2013); or decisions are made over time in dynamic interaction with the system and cannot be considered …
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