Authors
Heike K Lotze, Derek P Tittensor, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Tyler D Eddy, William WL Cheung, Eric D Galbraith, Manuel Barange, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Julia L Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Matthias Büchner, Catherine M Bulman, David A Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P Dunne, Elizabeth A Fulton, Simon Jennings, Miranda C Jones, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos, Tilla Roy, José A Fernandes, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago AM Silva, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A Stock, Philippe Verley, Jan Volkholz, Nicola D Walker, Boris Worm
Publication date
2019/6/25
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume
116
Issue
26
Pages
12907-12912
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Description
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels …
Total citations
20192020202120222023202412761151189342
Scholar articles
HK Lotze, DP Tittensor, A Bryndum-Buchholz, TD Eddy… - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019