Authors
Michael B Schultz, Alice E Kane, Sarah J Mitchell, Michael R MacArthur, Elisa Warner, David S Vogel, James R Mitchell, Susan E Howlett, Michael S Bonkowski, David A Sinclair
Publication date
2020/9/15
Journal
Nature communications
Volume
11
Issue
1
Pages
4618
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Description
The identification of genes and interventions that slow or reverse aging is hampered by the lack of non-invasive metrics that can predict the life expectancy of pre-clinical models. Frailty Indices (FIs) in mice are composite measures of health that are cost-effective and non-invasive, but whether they can accurately predict health and lifespan is not known. Here, mouse FIs are scored longitudinally until death and machine learning is employed to develop two clocks. A random forest regression is trained on FI components for chronological age to generate the FRIGHT (Frailty Inferred Geriatric Health Timeline) clock, a strong predictor of chronological age. A second model is trained on remaining lifespan to generate the AFRAID (Analysis of Frailty and Death) clock, which accurately predicts life expectancy and the efficacy of a lifespan-extending intervention up to a year in advance. Adoption of these clocks should …
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