Authors
Kenneth A Couch, Robert Fairlie
Publication date
2010/2
Journal
Demography
Volume
47
Issue
1
Pages
227-247
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Description
Studies have tested the claim that blacks are the last hired during periods of economic growth and the first fired in recessions by examining the movement of relative unemployment rates over the business cycle. Any conclusion drawn from this type of analysis must be viewed as tentative because cyclical movements in the underlying transitions into and out of unemployment are not examined. Using Current Population Survey data matched across adjacent months from 1989–2004, this article provides the first detailed examination of labor market transitions for primeage black and white men to test the last hired, first fired hypothesis. Considerable evidence is presented that blacks are the first fired as the business cycle weakens. However, no evidence is found that blacks are the last hired. Instead, blacks appear to be initially hired from the ranks of the unemployed early in the business cycle and later are …
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