Authors
Elisa Ragno, Amir AghaKouchak, Linyin Cheng, Mojtaba Sadegh
Publication date
2019/8/1
Journal
Advances in Water Resources
Volume
130
Pages
270-282
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Evolving climate conditions and anthropogenic factors, such as CO2 emissions, urbanization and population growth, can cause changes in weather and climate extremes. Most current risk assessment models rely on the assumption of stationarity (i.e., no temporal change in statistics of extremes). Most nonstationary modeling studies focus primarily on changes in extremes over time. Here, we present Process-informed Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis (ProNEVA) as a generalized tool for incorporating different types of physical drivers (i.e., underlying processes), stationary and nonstationary concepts, and extreme value analysis methods (i.e., annual maxima, peak-over-threshold). ProNEVA builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This offers more robust uncertainty estimates of return …
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