Authors
Mojtaba Sadegh, Hamed Moftakhari, Hoshin V Gupta, Elisa Ragno, Omid Mazdiyasni, Brett Sanders, Richard Matthew, Amir AghaKouchak
Publication date
2018/5
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
45
Description
Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers (e.g., ocean and fluvial flooding, drought, and heat waves) leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. In this paper, we review the existing multivariate design and hazard scenario concepts and introduce a novel copula‐based weighted average threshold scenario for an expected event with multiple drivers. The model can be used for obtaining multihazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. The proposed model offers uncertainty ranges of most likely compound hazards using Bayesian inference. We show that the uncertainty ranges of design quantiles might be large and may differ significantly from one copula model to the other. We also …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
M Sadegh, H Moftakhari, HV Gupta, E Ragno… - Geophysical Research Letters, 2018