Authors
SK Roy Bhowmik, SD Kotal, SR Kalsi
Publication date
2005/1/1
Journal
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Volume
44
Issue
1
Pages
179-185
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Description
An empirical model for predicting the maximum surface wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone after crossing the east coast of India is described. The model parameters are determined from the database of 19 recent cyclones. The model is based upon the assumption that tropical cyclone winds decay exponentially after landfall. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent observation hours is also presented. Results show that without the correction factor the absolute mean error ranges from 6.1 to 4.9 kt (1 kt= 0.5144 ms− 1) and the root-mean-square error ranges from 7.9 to 5.6 kt, with both decreasing over time. With the incorporation of the correction procedure, a significant improvement in the forecast skill is noticed for the case in which it is tested using the dependent sample. The model is expected to be very useful to operational forecasters.
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