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Potatoes are a mainstay of human diets and 4 million metric tons are produced annually in the United States. Simulations of future crop production show that climate change is likely to reduce the yields of the major grain crops around the world, but the impacts on potato production have yet to be determined. A model ensemble consisting of five process-based and one statistical model was used to estimate the impact of climate change on fully irrigated, well-fertilized potato crop across the USA under the RCP 8.5 scenario of high emissions. Results indicate that increasing temperature will reduce potato yields, but this will be mostly compensated by elevated atmospheric CO 2. Yields are predicted to decline with climate change in the current highest-yielding areas, which might experience the highest rises in growing season temperature during short hot summers. Simulated yields increase slightly elsewhere in the …