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Climate change threatens biodiversity in all ecosystems, and major shifts in species distributions are expected. Freshwater ecosystems are considered particularly vulnerable due to the ectothermic physiology of most freshwater species and their limited habitat extent and capacity to track climate trends. In this study, we examined what broad patterns in freshwater riverine species turnover might be expected under climate change across continental Australia and what are the implications of these patterns for aquatic species and the low aquatic biodiversity of some bioregions?

Continental Australia.

We built statistical relationships between bioclimatic environments and the occurrence of species of four freshwater taxa (freshwater fish, crayfish, turtles and frogs) and examined trends in projected species turnover for a ‘business as usual’ climate scenario. We used Maxent to model species …