Auteurs
Eric Gaume, Jean-Pierre Villeneuve, Michel Desbordes
Date de publication
1998/9/1
Revue
Journal of Hydrology
Volume
210
Numéro
1-4
Pages
38-50
Éditeur
Elsevier
Description
Real uncertainties in the parameter values of conceptual models used in hydrology sometimes remain after calibration. While this is unacceptable, uncertainty analysis can provide useful information on the structural properties of the model. This information may then be used to modify the model or establish the limits of usefulness of the measured data. This paper focuses on the estimation and interpretation of the parameter uncertainties in such cases. The standard estimation method, based on the second-order approximation of the shape of the objective function in the vicinity of the optimum parameter set, provides an inaccurate description of these uncertainties. Instead a global approach, consisting of scanning the hypercube of the possible parameter values, is shown to give a good overview of these uncertainties. This gives not only a good general view of the shape of the objective function, but a good basis for …
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