Authors
Hugo De Groote, Mariam Gharib, Jill E Cairns, Michael S Olsen
Publication date
2023/4/11
Journal
Available at SSRN 4454085
Description
Fifty percent non-pollen producing (FNP) maize, based on a male-sterile gene, increases N-efficiency and yield, directly and indirectly through increased varietal turnover. We estimate FNP will increase maize yields in SSA directly by 192 kg/ha and indirectly by 136 kg/ha, leading to a maize supply shift by 460k tonnes and, after adjusting for a price decrease of US $4.6/tonne, a production shift of by 210k tonnes, with an annual economic surplus of $781 million. We conclude that the estimated accumulated benefits of the technology ($3, 6 billion) are very high compared to the costs ($29 million). The technology is of interest to both farmers and seed companies and could make a substantial contribution to ensuring food security in Africa.