Authors
Matthew MacLeod, Alison J Fraser, Don Mackay
Publication date
2002/4
Journal
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: An International Journal
Volume
21
Issue
4
Pages
700-709
Publisher
Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Description
First‐order analytical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for environmental chemical fate models is described and applied to a regional contaminant fate model and a food web bioaccumulation model. By assuming linear relationships between inputs and outputs, independence, and log‐normal distributions of input variables, a relationship between uncertainty in input parameters and uncertainty in output parameters can be derived, yielding results that are consistent with a Monte Carlo analysis with similar input assumptions. A graphical technique is devised for interpreting and communicating uncertainty propagation as a function of variance in input parameters and model sensitivity. The suggested approach is less calculationally intensive than Monte Carlo analysis and is appropriate for preliminary assessment of uncertainty when models are applied to generic environments or to large geographic areas or when …
Total citations
Scholar articles
Evaluating and expressing the propagation of uncertainty in chemical fate and bioaccumulation models
M MacLeod, AJ Fraser, D Mackay - … Toxicology and Chemistry: An International Journal, 2002