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World forests are undergoing contrasted trends. While in some areas pressures continue, in others these are decreasing, setting forests into a trajectory of recovery. However, disturbances can interact with this process, inducing shifts toward alternative states. Here we investigated the post-fire recovery of an ancient Pinus pinaster forest with Quercus pyrenaica in the understory in Central Spain, in which intensive management had decreased. Post-fire forest recovery was sampled and stand history was characterized using forest planning records. Stand history, structure and other geophysical data, including fire severity, were utilized as predictors, as appropriate, of pre-fire stand structure and of the post-fire forest using boosted regression trees. We found that pre-fire Quercus stem density tended to be higher in stands without recent management plans, although overall stand structure was poorly predictable. The …