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It is assumed that global change is already affecting the composition, structure and distribution of forest ecosystems; however, detailed evidences of altitudinal and latitudinal shifts are still scarce.

To develop a method based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) to assess spatio-temporal changes in species distributions.

We develop an approach based on universal kriging to compare species distribution models from the different NFI cycles and regardless of the differences in the sampling schemes used. Furthermore, a confidence interval approach is used to assess significant changes in species distribution. The approach is applied to some of the southernmost populations of Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica in the Western Pyrenees over the last 40 years.