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A machine learning approach to trajectory prediction for sequencing and merging of traffic following fixed arrival routes is described and evaluated using actual aircraft trajectory and meteorological data. In the approach a model is trained using historic data to make arrival time predictions. Model inputs are the aircraft type, aircraft ground speed and altitude at the start of the arrival route, surface wind, and altitude winds. A stepwise regression method is used to systematically determine the inputs and functions of inputs that are included in the prediction model based on their explanatory power. For the evaluation of the approach a 45 NM fixed arrival route was used that ends at the runway. Traffic performed a continuous descent operation. At a prediction horizon of 45 NM the model explained 63% of the observed variance in the arrival time. The mean absolute time error was 18 s. Finally, the prediction model was …