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The presence of Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser sturio) and ship sturgeon (Acipenser nudiventris) in the Danube has been known through only occasional, chance sightings; significant uncertainty remains as to whether these species are already extinct or still present in the Danube River basin. In this study, five different statistical methods were applied for assessment of their extinction probability. All methods provided a significant probability that the Atlantic sturgeon is extinct, with extinction having occurred somewhere between 1966 and 1970. Although the applied methods provided different results, all indicated that the ship sturgeon is probably still present, but that extinction may occur within a few decades. Sensitivity analyses of these statistical methods projected that new sightings of ship sturgeon in the coming years would not extend the length of extinction by more than a few years. The best management …