Authors
Friederike EL Otto, Karin van der Wiel, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F Kew, Peter Uhe, Heidi Cullen
Publication date
2018/1/29
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
13
Issue
2
Pages
024006
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Description
On 4–6 December 2015, storm Desmond caused very heavy rainfall in Northern England and Southern Scotland which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing Northern England and Southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5%–97.5% confidence interval of 5%–80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional …
Scholar articles
FEL Otto, K van der Wiel, GJ van Oldenborgh, S Philip… - Environmental Research Letters, 2018