Authors
Natalia Bailey, M Hashem Pesaran, L Vanessa Smith
Publication date
2019/2/1
Journal
Journal of Econometrics
Volume
208
Issue
2
Pages
507-534
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
This paper proposes a regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices that uses insights from the multiple testing (M T) literature. The approach tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not statistically significant, taking account of the multiple testing nature of the problem. The effective p-values of the tests are set as a decreasing function of N (the cross section dimension), the rate of which is governed by the nature of dependence of the underlying observations, and the relative expansion rates of N and T (the time dimension). In this respect, the method specifies the appropriate thresholding parameter to be used under Gaussian and non-Gaussian settings. The M T estimator of the sample correlation matrix is shown to be consistent in the spectral and Frobenius norms, and in terms of support recovery, so long as the true …
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