Authors
Joshua R Goldstein, Ronald D Lee
Publication date
2020/9/8
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume
117
Issue
36
Pages
22035-22041
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Description
To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.
Total citations
2020202120222023202436113895825
Scholar articles
JR Goldstein, RD Lee - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020