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Understanding consumers' upgrading behavior is essential to product planning. Product managers would like to know what fraction of customers would upgrade to new and improved versions, and how fast. This paper presents a method to forecast the sales path of an improved version of a high‐technology product defined in terms of its price path and multiattribute product specification. The approach is potentially useful to managers to answer what‐if questions on the effects of alternative price paths and product specifications of the upgrade on when and what fraction of customers will upgrade. By doing such analysis for several product options under consideration, managers can choose the best feature specification and price path for the upgrade. The proposed approach integrates an individual‐level conjoint utility model with a hazard function specification. The first stage of estimation (i.e., conjoint analysis …