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The historical rainfall data for the period of 34 years (1975-2008) of Jhansi in Bundelkhand agro climatic zone of U.P. were analyzed to know weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual probabilities at different levels of rainfall for suitable crop planning. The analysis revealed that 90.3% of the total annual rainfall is received during SW monsoon months (June-September) with high intensity causes moderate to severe erosion. Post monsoon or winter months (October to February) account 7.1% while pre monsoon or summer months (March-May) accounts 2.6% of total yearly rainfall. Analysis also showed that the frequency of drought has been increased since the year 2000 onwards in the zone. The maximum amount of rainfall is received during August (286.0 mm) and minimum in April (3.1 mm) month. Occurrence of 70% of initial probability of a dry week from 1 to 24th week and the conditional probability of wet …