Authors
Senay Agca, Volodymyr Babich, John R Birge, Jing Wu
Publication date
2022/9
Journal
Management Science
Volume
68
Issue
9
Pages
6506-6538
Publisher
INFORMS
Description
Using a panel of credit default swap (CDS) spreads and supply chain links, we observe that both favorable and unfavorable credit shocks propagate through supply chains in the CDS market. Particularly, the three-day cumulative abnormal CDS spread change (CASC) is 63 basis points for firms whose customers experienced a CDS up-jump event (an adverse credit shock). The value is 74 basis points if their suppliers experienced a CDS up-jump event. The corresponding three-day CASC values are –36 and –38 basis points, respectively, for firms whose customers and suppliers, respectively, experienced an extreme CDS down-jump event (a favorable credit shock). These effects are approximately twice as large for adverse credit shocks originating from natural disasters. Credit shock propagation is absent in inactive supply chains and is amplified if supply chain partners are followed by the same analysts …
Total citations
20172018201920202021202220232024114126123627
Scholar articles
S Agca, V Babich, JR Birge, J Wu - Georgetown McDonough School of Business Research …, 2017