Authors
Norlee Ramli, Abu Hassan Shaari Md Noor, Fathin Faizah Said, Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam
Publication date
2019/1/1
Journal
International Journal of Business & Society
Volume
20
Issue
1
Description
Rubber industry has always been vulnerable to the price volatility of standard rubber, which subverts the benefits of rubber production to the local economy. The objectives of this article are to study the volatility of rubber prices and its causality in three countries of main rubber producer namely Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia as well as synthetic rubber and crude oil. Univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH)-Family models such as an ordinary GARCH, GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH are applied to determine the best model for volatility evaluation. Granger causality test is performed to observe the short-run relationship amongst ASEAN-3. The results denote that conditional variance is determined by past innovation and past conditional variance (volatility). The significance of leverage effect with negative coefficient value shows the existence of asymmetric effect at the same magnitude for Malaysia rubber prices, synthetic rubber prices and crude oil prices. This study indicates the evidence of bidirectional short-run Granger causality using VAR between the prices where any shocks occur at one country will give some impacts to the other countries.
Total citations
20192020202120222023202412352
Scholar articles
N Ramli, AHS Md Noor, FF Said, AHM Azam - International Journal of Business & Society, 2019