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Economic growth in rural areas has to align with preservation of land uses that optimise environmental services. This means that trade-offs between economic and ecological priorities need to be understood, quantified and managed. We aimed to estimate the trade-off in the Tanjung Jabung Barat district of Jambi province Indonesia, where traditional agroforestry systems on both peat and mineral soils and logged-over forests give way to monocultural plantations of pulpwood and oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Simulations of a 30-year time period of four scenarios using the FALLOW (Forests, Agroforests, Low-value-Landscape, Or, Wastelands) model show that a business-as-usual scenario of economic growth unhindered by the application of conservation scenarios will lead to high carbon dioxide CO₂ emissions. The forest and agroforest protection scenario, with moderate assumptions for peat-based …