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Tabu search algorithms are among the most effective approaches for solving the job-shop scheduling problem (JSP). Yet, we have little understanding of why these algorithms work so well, and under what conditions. We develop a model of problem difficulty for tabu search in the JSP, borrowing from similar models developed for SAT and other NP-complete problems. We show that the mean distance between random local optima and the nearest optimal solution is highly correlated with the cost of locating optimal solutions to typical, random JSPs. Additionally, this model accounts for the cost of locating sub-optimal solutions, and provides an explanation for differences in the relative difficulty of square versus rectangular JSPs. We also identify two important limitations of our model. First, model accuracy is inversely correlated with problem difficulty, and is exceptionally poor for rare, very high-cost problem instances …