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This research evaluates the climatic summertime representation of the diurnal cycle of near‐surface temperature using the Weather Research and Forecasting System (WRF) over the rapidly urbanizing and water‐vulnerable Phoenix metropolitan area. A suite of monthly, high‐resolution (2 km grid spacing) simulations are conducted during the month of July with both a contemporary landscape and a hypothetical presettlement scenario. WRF demonstrates excellent agreement in the representation of the daily to monthly diurnal cycle of near‐surface temperatures, including the accurate simulation of maximum daytime temperature timing. Thermal sensitivity to anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC), assessed via replacement of the modern‐day landscape with natural shrubland, is small on the regional scale. The WRF‐simulated characterization of the diurnal cycle, supported by previous …