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Current attitudes towards secular changes in pediatric aerobic fitness are highly polarized, both in the popular and scientific literature. Few studies have actually quantified secular changes in pediatric aerobic fitness, with most making only informal comparisons. The aim of this study therefore, was to quantify the global change in pediatric aerobic fitness test performance.

Following an extensive review of the literature, 33 pediatric studies examining secular changes in maximal field running tests of aerobic performance were analyzed. Secular changes were calculated at the country X study X age X sex X test level using least squares linear regression weighted by the square root of sample size. All secular changes were expressed as a percentage of the weighted mean value for all data points in the regression. Negative values indicated performance declines, and positive values improvements …